Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.706238 0.813893 0.928925 1.060594 1.206729 1.363543 1.544126
2025-03-09 0.540182 0.681572 0.843289 1.040434 1.272688 1.536000 1.855400
2025-03-16 0.411225 0.568172 0.760097 1.008529 1.317777 1.686116 2.153715
2025-03-23 0.335006 0.505563 0.727866 1.032031 1.429880 1.924708 2.577884
2025-03-30 0.251252 0.418036 0.650978 0.988837 1.453722 2.057476 2.885466
2025-04-06 0.193921 0.356100 0.598641 0.970657 1.507334 2.232370 3.261275
2025-04-13 0.147083 0.299837 0.545040 0.942860 1.543940 2.387233 3.623062
2025-04-20 0.118431 0.266648 0.520752 0.954441 1.636960 2.626238 4.116149
2025-04-27 0.093002 0.232768 0.489364 0.950325 1.705560 2.835414 4.582072
2025-05-04 0.075347 0.209075 0.471117 0.964714 1.803438 3.094018 5.135441
2025-05-11 0.060284 0.186336 0.450323 0.971566 1.889240 3.339893 5.684861
2025-05-18 0.045041 0.157903 0.412800 0.942945 1.912730 3.490320 6.099248
2025-05-25 0.031297 0.127982 0.366742 0.893777 1.900066 3.589402 6.453020
2025-06-01 0.023682 0.111450 0.345932 0.890483 1.968008 3.824232 7.034321
2025-06-08 0.017177 0.094727 0.320436 0.873477 2.008925 4.016983 7.560254
2025-06-15 0.013936 0.087607 0.317174 0.903538 2.141645 4.374815 8.374656
2025-06-22 0.009523 0.072467 0.288307 0.871716 2.150603 4.517978 8.841716
2025-06-29 0.006783 0.062191 0.269909 0.860781 2.199599 4.734549 9.442829
2025-07-06 0.004600 0.052225 0.249000 0.839807 2.225169 4.909529 9.980887
2025-07-13 0.003472 0.047186 0.242426 0.853804 2.325466 5.227213 10.779565
2025-07-20 0.002456 0.041330 0.230924 0.852759 2.392676 5.486263 11.486438
2025-07-27 0.001829 0.037537 0.225748 0.868146 2.497683 5.822974 12.345688
2025-08-03 0.001308 0.033583 0.218433 0.876192 2.586497 6.132786 13.168925